THE SENATE – AT 10:32 A.M. ET:  We're getting more and more polling on Senate races, with the midterm elections only six months away.  The results, frankly are a bit disappointing.  Some Republicans seem to believe that this year's elections will be a cakewalk, but they are mistaken. 

Even in seriously contested states, like Arkansas, where Republicans have outstanding candidates, polling shows close races.  Closer, frankly, than I'd expected.  The American people may have turned on President Obama, but that doesn't automatically mean they'll turn on their locally elected representatives and senators.  And the Republican Party, as a party, does not poll well.

Paul Mirengoff, at Powerline, has done a state-by-state analysis, showing how close things really are. 

Let’s start with Arkansas. According to Magellan, our friend Rep. Tom Cotton leads Sen. Mark Pryor by three points, 46-43. Two recent polls, one of which we questioned, have found Pryor leading by 10 points. I’m not sure what to make of this race right now, but suspect that it’s very much up for grabs.

In Alaska, Republican Dan Sullivan (who hasn’t been nominated yet) leads Sen. Mark Begich 46-41. In March, Rasmussen had the race tied at 44-44. This race will probably be close but I suspect that Sullivan has the edge. Like Pryor, Begich benefits from his family name. But unlike Pryor, Begich’s victory in 2006 was a fluke (he narrowly defeated Ted Stevens who was laboring under the handicap of criminal prosecution).

In Colorado, Sen. Mark Udall leads his Republican challenger Rep. Cory Gardner 45-42, according to Magellan. All four polls that I’m aware of since March show Udall leading by 1 to 3 points. Edge, Udall but not by much.

COMMENT:  Read the whole thing.  You'll probably wind up thinking, "Wasn't this Democratic senator supposed to be toast?"  You'll see there's not much toast out there.  The contested states are swing states, and the Dems know how to play to swing-state voters.  You won't hear them singing love songs to Barack Obama.  He won't even be mentioned. 

And remember that Dems have a superb ground game on election day – getting out their base after scaring it to death.  ("They'll take away your health care.  They'll take your Social Security.")  This will be a tough fight.  There isn't even a guarantee that Republicans will gain any seats in the Senate.

May 4,  2014